Why Sen. Clinton's Nomination Won't Kill the Democratic Chances of Victory

Can the Democrats afford a Clinton victory? Yes, we can. Even from a brokered convention.

First of all, the traditional, and most reliable, part of the Democratic base (with the exception of African-Americans) has consistently supported Clinton.

Second, "new voters" are a myriad bunch. There are at least two kinds of new voters. The first is partisans: young people who have become energized by the politics of the last eight years. These people generally graduated college in the wake of the dot com bust and the war on terror: 2000-2006. Some of have become partisans of the left and others of the right. Partisans of the left will support any Democrat. (You don't become energized and then just leave.)

The second kind are the post-partisans. These people love the Obama, beyond politics rhetoric. Not sure what to do about them.

Without Clinton, a lot of women and older voters may turn to McCain.

The different candidates bring different southern states into play. Tennessee, West Virginia, and Arkansas (they both share Missouri and Virginia) are Clinton's whereas Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama's are Obama's.

Clearly a Clinton-Obama ticket solves a lot of these problems. Black turnout will be just as high to elect the first black vice president, particularly because Obama will still be on the stump as the vice-president. Women, Latinos, Asians, and gays will turn out for Clinton's election as well as the "one-issue" independents: peaceniks and those worried about the economy.

I imagine that the anti-war bloc will continue to solidify as McCain makes the case for war. (Already Clinton is consistently beating McCain in head to head match-ups in the polls on the growing anti-war bloc alone. The economy is also only going to get worse. With gas prices rising, due to the summer increase, the cost of 'recession-proof' foods such as pizza and fries rising, and increase inflation on the dollar, the economy is very structurally-weak. (It's basically the Carter economy of the 70s.) This will create a powerful pro-Democratic electorate.

If we do a state by state analysis, Clinton puts the following state in play that Democrats have had a hard time holding onto in the past two presidential elections: New Mexico (5), Arkansas (6), Iowa (7), Florida (27), Missouri (11), Ohio (20) and Nevada (5). I think I write another post on this.

Posted by John Stevenson at 1:08 AM |