The Dartmouth Observer
Monday, February 11, 2008
Is Senator Obama The Most Electable Democrat?
You didn't hear it from me:
Vis a vis the electoral map, here are the additional states that Clinton puts into play that Bush won in 2004: New Mexico*, Arizona+, Arkansas, Iowa*, Florida+, Missouri* and Nevada
(*indicate states that Obama also puts into play)
So, to sum it up: Sen. Clinton, assuming that all of the blue states stay blue, puts the following states into play at the presidential level (electoral votes in parentheses): New Mexico (5), Arkansas (6), Iowa (7), Florida (27), Missouri (11), and Nevada (5). Given the slim margins of the 2000 and 2004 races, this represents a significant amount of votes. Regarding the House of Representatives and the Senate, Clinton's coattails should put the following states in play: New Mexico, Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa, Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, California, Michigan, and Nevada. (I can get a list of vacant seats in the House and Senate from somewhere as well.) We don't yet know about Ohio or Pennsylvania yet, but Gov. Ed Rendell (PA) has endorsed her.
+If John McCain chooses Gov. Crist as his running mate, then Florida could be more of a toss-up and makes the Latino and African-American vote more important. (Bush took 40% of the Latino vote in 2004.) John McCain is also the Senator from Arizona.
Since everyone believes that blue states will stay blue, then Clinton's ability to peel off a few red states from Bush 2004 coalition gives her the election by a comfortable margin in the 2008 electoral college.