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Sunday, May 25, 2008
 
Speaking Truth To Power: Maps and Math

It doesn't get clearer than this.

Is He the One we've been waiting for?

From Hominid:

Obama McCain
37.1% probability of winning 62.0% probability of winning
Mean of 264 electoral votes Mean of 274 electoral votes

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

  • 10000 simulations: Obama wins 37.1%, McCain wins 62.0%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 264.1 ( 14.6)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 273.9 ( 14.6)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 263 (241, 294)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 275 (244, 297)

Clinton McCain
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 320 electoral votes Mean of 218 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

WashingtonOregonIdahoMontanaWyomingNorth DakotaSouth DakotaMinnesotaWisconsinIowaIlliniosIndianaColoradoUtahNew MexicoTexasNebraskaOklahomaKansasNevadaCaliforniaArizonaMissouriArkansasLouisianaMississippiAlabamaTennesseeGeorgiaKentuckyOhioMichiganPennsylvaniaWest VirginiaVirginiaHawaiiAlaskaNorth CarolinaSouth CarolinaFloridaNew YorkVermontNew HampshireMaineMassachusettsRhode IslandConnecticutNew JerseyDelawareMarylandDistrict of Columbia

On Friday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 99.9% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain in an election held then. Today after the release of five new polls, Clinton’s chances have increased ever so slightly.

After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 10,000 times (and there were no ties). What does this mean? It means that the state head-to-head polls used to generate a simulated election indicate that Clinton would win a general election held now. That is, her expected win of 320 electoral votes is well above the “margin of error” (or sampling variability).

This doesn’t mean she wins with certainty in November…it means she would win in an election held right now.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations. Notice that the distribution sits way above the 269 electoral votes Clinton needs to win:

  • 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 320.2 ( 12.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 217.8 ( 12.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 321 (295, 344)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 217 (194, 243)