The Dartmouth Observer
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Speaking Truth To Power: Maps and Math
It doesn't get clearer than this.
Is He the One we've been waiting for?
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
On Friday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 99.9% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain in an election held then. Today after the release of five new polls, Clinton’s chances have increased ever so slightly.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 10,000 times (and there were no ties). What does this mean? It means that the state head-to-head polls used to generate a simulated election indicate that Clinton would win a general election held now. That is, her expected win of 320 electoral votes is well above the “margin of error” (or sampling variability).
This doesn’t mean she wins with certainty in November…it means she would win in an election held right now.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations. Notice that the distribution sits way above the 269 electoral votes Clinton needs to win: